Illinois basketball is generating major buzz this pre-season, but there's a fascinating divide in how their potential is being assessed. While the AP Poll ranks them a respectable No. 17, a much bolder prediction comes from KenPom, the highly respected college basketball analytics site, placing them at No. 6! What does this discrepancy mean for the Fighting Illini's chances this year? Let's dive in.
The Computers Love Illinois:
KenPom, often considered the 'holy grail' of college basketball metrics due to its sophisticated statistical analysis, sees Illinois as a top-10 team, specifically No. 6. To put that in perspective, the only Big Ten team ranked higher by KenPom is Purdue. This suggests that the model believes Illinois possesses the raw talent and strategic advantages to compete at an elite level. But here's where it gets controversial... why the difference in opinion with the AP Poll, which relies on human voters?
The AP Poll's More Cautious Outlook:
The Associated Press (AP) Poll, where media members cast ballots each week, ranks Illinois No. 17. While still a strong position, it's considerably lower than KenPom's assessment. This is, however, Illinois' highest pre-season ranking since 2021 when they started at No. 11 with Kofi Cockburn and went on to capture their first Big Ten regular season title since 2005. In this year's AP Poll, Illinois finds itself behind Big Ten rivals Purdue and Michigan, as well as UCLA. Which begs the question: Are the human voters undervaluing the Illini?
Big Ten Expectations:
Adding another layer to the mix, at Big Ten Media Days, a poll of voters predicted Illinois would finish 4th in the conference. This aligns more closely with the AP Poll's sentiment, suggesting a strong but not necessarily dominant season within the Big Ten.
NCAA Tournament Aspirations:
The expectation is that Illinois will make its sixth consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance (counting the canceled 2020 tournament, it would be seven). This consistent presence in the tournament speaks to the program's stability and ability to compete at a high level. Last season, Illinois was among the youngest teams in the nation, returning less than 3% of its scoring from the previous year. And this is the part most people miss... That youth movement, while challenging last year, has now transformed into a significant advantage.
Experience is Key:
This year, the script has flipped. Illinois boasts one of the oldest teams in the country, returning 42% of their scoring – among the highest percentages nationwide. This influx of experience and returning talent is a major factor in the pre-season optimism. Key returning players include SG Kylan Boswell (12 PPG), C Tomislav Ivisic (13 PPG), and F Ben Humrichous (8 PPG).
Impactful Transfers:
To further bolster the roster, Illinois has added some intriguing transfers:
C Zvonimir Ivisic (Arkansas): The 7-foot-2-inch twin brother of Tomislav Ivisic, Zvonimir brings a unique skillset. Last season at Arkansas, he averaged 8 PPG and shot 37% from three-point range. He's also a capable passer and a very good shot blocker. However, he played only 18 minutes per game, partly due to defensive limitations. This off-season, he's reportedly gained 30 pounds, which he believes will help him hold his own against opposing centers. While Tomislav is currently the likely starter, Coach Underwood has indicated that the twins will share the court frequently, creating a towering presence with both 7'1" and 7'2" players on the floor simultaneously.
SF Andrej Stojakovic (Cal): A 6-foot-7-inch wing who averaged 18 PPG at Cal. While his shooting percentage was only 42% on a struggling team, the expectation is that he'll have more efficient looks on a better team. Underwood has drawn comparisons to Terrence Shannon Jr., envisioning Stojakovic attacking the basket in transition. He shot 31% from three last season, showing potential as a perimeter threat. However, a significant concern is Stojakovic's current knee injury, which has sidelined him for over a month. There's no clear timetable for his return, casting uncertainty over his immediate impact. If healthy, he could be the team's leading scorer.
PG Mihailo Petrovic (Europe): A 6-foot point guard with professional experience in Europe. At 22 years old, Petrovic averaged over seven assists and 14 points in his league. He's known for his playmaking ability and court vision. However, his eligibility is currently pending NCAA approval, with the regular season just weeks away. The situation mirrors Tomislav Ivisic's last year, who was cleared just before the opener, but there is no guarantee Petrovic will be cleared in time. Underwood has noted that Petrovic needs to improve defensively and adjust to playing without the ball in his hands as often, as he was a ball-dominant point guard in Europe. He will likely share point guard duties with Keaton Wagler, Andrej Stojakovic, and Kylan Boswell, focusing on pushing the pace in transition.
Chemistry Concerns:
Coach Underwood has expressed concern that the "big three" (Stojakovic, Boswell, and Petrovic) haven't practiced together yet, potentially delaying the development of vital on-court chemistry.
The Big Questions:
So, where does all of this leave Illinois? Are they truly a top-10 team, as KenPom suggests? Or is a ranking in the teens more accurate? The answers likely hinge on the health and eligibility of Stojakovic and Petrovic, and how quickly this new-look team can gel. What do you think? Will Illinois live up to the KenPom hype, or will the AP Poll prove more accurate? And is the emphasis on experience over raw talent a winning strategy in today's college basketball landscape? Let us know your predictions in the comments below!
